ISW named the risks of the enemy capturing Velyka Novosilka.

The Institute for the Study of War reported that the capture of Velyka Novosilka could be decisive for Russian command regarding the redeployment of the RF Armed Forces.

Analysts believe that the units of the Eastern Military District of the RF were the main force in the directions of Vugledar and Velyka Novosilka. They repelled counterattacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2023 and advanced in the fall of 2024.

Institute analysts believe that capturing Velyka Novosilka will give the RF Time to make decisions about further actions. It is also noted that the settlement is protected by the Mokri Yali River, complicating counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Russian command may consider the option of keeping RF Armed Forces units in the Donetsk region and continuing the offensive to the administrative border with the Dnipropetrovsk region. However, it remains unknown what combat readiness the RF Armed Forces units maintained after long operations.

The option of leaving some RF Armed Forces elements near Velyka Novosilka for limited attacks on Ukrainian forces in the area is also being considered.

Ukrainian officials also warned about a possible resumption of offensive operations in the Zaporizhzhia region in 2025.

The conclusion of experts is that the redeployment of RF Armed Forces units will be an indicator of priority directions for Russian military command in 2025.